Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
